A token on pons, counted by the tool that counts all the others, with the expectation written down first.

One launch is n=1 and proves nothing about the tool. What it shows is the method: we said what we expect before the outcome was known, and the outcome is published in the same place either way.

The token is live. Its own page is the record.

LEDGE, on pons, Robinhood Chain. Paired with ETH, graduation threshold 4.2 ETH, creator tax 3%. Launch: 19 Sep 2026, 16:25 UTC, chosen for when most of the venue is awake, not from the hour-of-day rates.

1. The creator wallet does not buy on the curve.

   Not in the launch block, not after. The token's page shows distinct buyers in its launch block.

2. No buys are arranged.

   No bought volume, no coordinated fill. The only promotion is telling people the launch exists.

3. Every reading is published as it happens.

   From the same index and the same definitions as every other token: buyers in the launch block, first outside buy, fill, time to graduation or not.

Launches like this one, ETH-paired with a 2 to 3% creator tax: 2.52% graduated (588 of 23,353), 1.37% leaving out graduations inside 5 minutes. Roughly 1 in 40, and 1 in 73 the slow way.

We expect the slow way or not at all. If it graduates, in tens of minutes to hours, not seconds. A fill inside five minutes contradicts the commitments above and would be reported as such. If it does not graduate, that is the base-rate outcome and is published with the same prominence.

The token’s own page is the record. Its readings at launch, +1 h, +24 h and +7 d are copied into the document’s Outcome section with their measurement times, and each expectation above is marked matched or not matched in one line, without narrative.

Written first and committed as 9f39adc on 17 September 2026. Nothing above its Outcome heading is edited after that. The commit · the full text · on the method page.